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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.