🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."