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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.